Research economist · Bogotá, Colombia

Julián Roa-Rozo

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Economist specializing in macroeconomics, public policy and econometrics. Project Coordinator at Econometría Consultores, where I lead project teams across impact evaluations, public-policy evaluations, and macroeconomic analysis. Independent research affiliated with the Centro de Estudios Manuel Ramírez. Previously a research analyst at the Banco de la República. M.A. in Economics from Universidad de los Andes.

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Featured

Selected work

Peer-reviewed publication

Is there hysteresis in potential output estimates?

Economics Letters · 2024

Using an error correction model, this paper studies the dynamics of GDP and potential GDP using OECD's Economic Outlook and IMF's World Economic Outlook estimates of the output gap. The...

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Latest column · 2026

Can you change the direction in which the clock hands move?

February 20, 2026 · La República

Connects two key 2026 events in Colombia: the 2025 GDP data (2.6% growth, below expectations, dragged down by collapsing investment in machinery) and the protests supporting the minimum wage decree....

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Open dataset

Output gap estimates for 184 economies

With Javier Gómez-Pineda · Banco de la República

A trend-cycle decomposition with hysteresis. Quarterly for 81 economies since 1995; annual for 184 economies, some going back to 1820.

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