Opinion · 2019 – 2026

Press articles

Monthly opinion columns written for Econometría Consultores, mostly published in La República, a Colombian economic newspaper. The columns track Colombia's and Latin America's macroeconomic outlook — inflation, growth, fiscal stance, monetary policy. A few, closer to my research, have appeared in Vox-EU.

Latest column · February 20, 2026

Can you change the direction in which the clock hands move?

February 20, 2026 · La República

Connects two key 2026 events in Colombia: the 2025 GDP data (2.6% growth, below expectations, dragged down by collapsing investment in machinery) and the protests supporting the minimum wage decree. Using the Goodwin and Bhaduri–Marglin models, I examine whether Colombia's economy is profit-led or wage-led. Four decades of data consistently show a clockwise (profit-led) pattern. Pushing wages above productivity compresses margins, stalls investment, and fuels inflation. The shift to a wage-led economy requires structural transformation — not decrees.

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Can you change the direction in which the clock hands move?

Showing all 30 columns.

New January 23, 2026

2026: A ticking time bomb masquerading as stability

2025 closed with solid numbers — GDP near 2.8–3%, unemployment around 9% — but inflation stayed high due to a widening fiscal deficit. In 2026, growth should reach 2.8–3.3%, yet inflation may hit 6–6.5%. Externally, the dollar has weakened amid U.S. institutional erosion under Trump, pushing the Colombian peso stronger. The minimum wage hike (23.7%) is the wild card: inflation expectations jumped from ~4.5% to 6.2%, likely forcing a 200-basis-point rate increase. Behind the apparent stability, an unprecedented fiscal time bomb is building.

Fiscal policyInflation

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New November 21, 2025

Colombia's inflation is a fiscal problem

In early 2025, analysts forecast ~4% inflation and ~10% unemployment for Colombia — but inflation exceeded 5% and unemployment fell to ~9%. A non-linear Phillips curve model actually captured this well: the forecasting miss wasn't a model failure but a failure to anticipate the scale of fiscal demand. Government consumption surged 14.9%, and the fiscal deficit ballooned to an expected 7–9% of GDP, far beyond official plans. Fiscal consolidation is the real key to bringing inflation and interest rates down.

InflationFiscal policy

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August 29, 2025

Moving stars in Colombia's sky

Macroeconomic policy, like celestial navigation, relies on unobservable stars — potential growth (g*), the neutral interest rate (r*), and the NAIRU (U*) — to chart its course. In Colombia, g* has fallen from 4.5% to 2.7%, largely due to collapsing fixed investment. The neutral rate has risen to roughly 6% in nominal terms, driven by fiscal pressures and shifting consumption patterns. Only the NAIRU offers good news, settling near 10% without lasting pandemic scarring.

Monetary policyGrowth

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May 23, 2025

Something odd is going on in this town

Colombia's post-pandemic economy shows an unusual pattern: GDP growth has been driven by household consumption rather than investment, which has fallen sharply. Colombians now spend 75% of GDP on consumption — well above OECD norms — with spending on recreation, sports, and culture surging ~85% since 2019. Possible drivers include expanded internet access (from 50% to 65.6% of households), cheaper telecom services, and cultural-sector incentives. Whether this shift is temporary or structural matters.

Growth

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April 25, 2025

Towards a Kindleberger spiral?

Using the Kindleberger spiral — the iconic chart of collapsing global trade during the Great Depression — as a starting point, this column explores the potential effects of Trump's 2025 tariffs. The IMF data shows the trade war has already hurt growth and inflation forecasts worldwide, but we are far from a 1930s-style collapse. For Colombia, the direct impact is limited. Yet the country faces its own risks: high public debt, shrinking fiscal space, and short-sighted measures like fast-tracking future tax revenue.

TradeLatin America

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February 28, 2025

Three notes on 2024's GDP figures

Three notes on Colombia's 2024 GDP (1.74%): growth beat most forecasts but remains insufficient; the growth pattern is healthier, with investment recovering, yet public infrastructure spending lags; and the demand adjustment that helped curb inflation has ended, with the rising GDP deflator signaling potential inflationary pressures. These challenges call for smarter public investment and continued monetary policy caution.

Growth

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January 17, 2025

2025: A clear sky that could turn dark

A year ago, we forecasted a painless disinflation for Colombia in 2024 — and it largely came true. For 2025, GDP growth is projected at 2.5–3%, and inflation should finally meet the central bank's target at 3.5–4%. However, gray clouds loom: diesel price adjustments, a high minimum wage increase, and recent currency depreciation could fuel inflation. The biggest concern is fiscal: a deficit above 5% of GDP and a government forced to cut spending.

GrowthInflation

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July 12, 2024

About inflation future

Global inflation has declined but is stabilizing above pre-pandemic levels. Two structural forces explain this: deglobalization and population aging will push prices higher, while some central banks opportunistically raised inflation targets (the Fed and ECB in 2020–2021) and others lost credibility. We may be entering a new era of structurally higher inflation. Policymakers need a forward-looking stance; fiscal austerity can support disinflation.

Inflation

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January 12, 2024

2024: painless disinflation

After a tough 2023 — with GDP growth near 1%, inflation at 9.2%, and a slowing labor market — 2024 could be the year Colombia tames inflation without major social costs. The nonlinear Phillips curve suggests that, with unemployment near its structural rate, small labor market shifts can significantly reduce inflation. Exchange rate appreciation and fading supply shocks should further ease prices. Core inflation could drop to ~4.5% by year-end.

InflationLabor markets

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October 6, 2023

Colombia's inflation

Colombia's inflation has a unique persistence problem rooted in fuel subsidies. By not adjusting fuel prices during 2021, the government stimulated growth but redirected household spending toward other goods, driving up core inflation far beyond OECD peers. While global inflation was concentrated in volatile energy prices that fell quickly, Colombia's settled into sticky components like services and rents. In the medium term, reducing fossil fuel dependence is key.

Inflation

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August 25, 2023

Confidence crisis?

The Colombian economy is converging to its pre-pandemic trend faster than expected, yet investment (gross fixed capital formation) has fallen roughly 10%, led by declines in "Other buildings and structures" and "Housing." This drop is driven primarily by a confidence crisis and elevated uncertainty — reflected in stock market volatility and Fedesarrollo's negative confidence indices — rather than by restrictive monetary policy, as Brazil's case illustrates.

Growth

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June 16, 2023

Is the economy boosted by wages or profits?

The labor reform debate in Colombia centers on whether raising wages will increase informality and destroy jobs — as critics and a Banco de la República study suggest (estimating around half a million jobs lost) — or whether higher wages will boost aggregate demand, production, and employment, as Keynesian defenders argue. Using Goodwin's Marxist cycle model and its Bhaduri-Marglin extension, the key question is whether Colombia is profit-led or wage-led. The evidence supports profit-led.

Labor markets

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May 5, 2023

Where is the potential?

The authors propose a new trend-cycle decomposition that allows for hysteresis — shocks affecting both components simultaneously — published as a working paper by Banco de la República. Applying it to 80+ countries, they find COVID-19 caused long-term GDP losses of 1–4% globally, with over half of countries showing GDP above potential, suggesting demand-driven inflation. In Latin America, Colombia recovered strongly, while Mexico remains about five percentage points below trend.

Monetary policyLatin America

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January 13, 2023

2023: A difficult year

Colombia faces a tough 2023. Growth is revised down from 2% to 1%, as household consumption — the main economic driver in 2021–2022 — stalled by late 2022, with a 2.2% drop reminiscent of the late-1990s crisis. Inflation is expected to close between 7–8%, pressured by a weak peso and tight monetary policy. Unemployment may rise to 11.8%, masking deeper labor market weakness.

Growth

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October 21, 2022

A dark storm cloud rises in the sky

The IMF's latest outlook warns of a global slowdown in 2023. Colombia closed 2022 strong (~8% growth), but analysts consistently underestimated both growth and inflation. For 2023, inflation will likely remain high (7–8%) due to contractionary monetary policy abroad, rising gasoline prices, and minimum wage hikes — well above the IMF's 5.3% forecast. The column urges continued rate hikes and inflation-adjusted transfers to protect the most vulnerable.

GrowthInflation

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August 12, 2022

Why is Colombia growing so much?

Colombia's exceptionally high growth rates aren't well explained by traditional macro factors. Public spending during the pandemic was moderate compared to peers, and monetary policy, while accommodative, wasn't uniquely expansive. Two underappreciated drivers stand out: the 2021 national strike made fuel price hikes politically impossible, effectively subsidizing transport-dependent industries via the FEPC; and WOM's entry into telecoms drove down prices precisely when remote work surged.

Growth

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March 11, 2022

Implications of the Russia–Ukraine war

The Russia–Ukraine war fuels global inflation by disrupting oil, gas, and agricultural exports (corn, wheat, urea). Colombia faces food inflation above 15% and total inflation likely over 7% by end of 2022, forcing the central bank to raise rates above 7%. However, not everything is negative: the Colombian peso has appreciated ~150 pesos since the war began, driven by higher oil prices and Latin America emerging as an investment haven.

InflationTrade

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February 25, 2022

Circular economy: an approach that generates profitability

With Oscar Rodriguez, Erika Nieves, Guillermo Rudas, Paula Rivera

A study conducted by Econometría for CEPAL, with support from the EU and Euroclima, built a dynamic macroeconomic model to assess the economic effects of reducing the use of plastics, metals, construction materials, and fuels in the Pacific Alliance countries. In a conservative scenario — reducing plastic use by 8% and other materials by 5% by 2030 — GDP gains range from 0.8% to 2.4%, employment rises 1.1–1.9%, and GHG emissions fall up to 6.7%.

Latin AmericaGrowth

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Vox-EU November 28, 2021

The 2021 surge in inflation: A look at sticky prices

Sticky-price inflation is inflation in the CPI components with infrequent price changes — where price setters are typically more forward looking. A look at sticky-price inflation provides relevant insights: it can help set aside movements in the relative price of goods, and it may also provide information on future CPI inflation. In October 2021, monthly sticky price inflation, partially corrected for base effects, was 5.3%. The CPI inflation forecast for October 2022 is 5.6%.

Inflation

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September 17, 2021

Should interest rates really be raised?

This column questions whether Colombia's central bank should raise interest rates in September 2021. While Taylor Rule models support a hike — given inflation near the upper target band, peso depreciation, and GDP growth above 7% — I argued that the data alone shouldn't guide the decision. Much of the inflationary pressure stems from a supply shock in food prices caused by the national strike (28A blockades), not from overheating demand.

Monetary policy

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March 5, 2021

Economic growth and the CONPES recovery framework

Colombia's COVID-19 crisis caused a 6.8% GDP drop, record-low inflation, and 16% unemployment. Growth forecasts (~4.5% for 2021) suggest pre-pandemic output won't return until 2022. The CONPES 4023 recovery plan has strengths — especially its focus on infrastructure-driven job creation and extending Ingreso Solidario — but raises concerns: the timeline for generating 2.5 million jobs is unclear, and it lacks active employment policies for women and youth.

COVID-19Growth

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January 22, 2021

We'll remain in 2020 until June

In early 2021, economic uncertainty in Colombia was high. Growth projections ranged from 0.8% to 8%, with Econometría estimating 4.5%. Recovery hinged largely on the vaccination plan, whose feasibility was doubtful: Colombia would need 146,000 daily doses, a figure very few countries had achieved. The first half of 2021 was expected to remain stagnant, with a meaningful reactivation only in the second half.

COVID-19Growth

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October 30, 2020

Between the Nike curve and the W curve

Colombia's economic recovery follows a Nike-curve shape rather than a V — GDP falling ~7–8% in 2020 with only partial rebound in 2021. Labor market and inflation data from August–September suggest the downturn may be slightly less severe than IMF forecasts, driven by the informal sector's quick return once lockdowns eased. However, this reopening raises the risk of a second COVID wave, which would trigger a W-shaped curve.

COVID-19Growth

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August 7, 2020

A V-shaped recovery?

Colombia's Ministry of Finance forecasts a V-shaped recovery — a 5.5% GDP drop in 2020 followed by 6.6% growth in 2021. However, most analysts expect a slower, Nike-swoosh recovery, with pre-crisis output levels returning only between 2022 and 2025. An overly optimistic forecast is dangerous: it leads to weaker fiscal stimulus and masks the true scale of debt and deficit ratios. In a severe crisis, planning for the worst scenario is safer.

COVID-19Growth

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April 18, 2020

Extreme measures for extreme times

The coronavirus is both a health and economic crisis. Conventional monetary policy — rate cuts, quantitative easing — proves insufficient because normal transmission channels break down during quarantine and uncertainty. Fiscal responses are essential: payroll subsidies, loan guarantees, and cash transfers help, but mostly reach formal workers. Ultimately, "helicopter money" — central bank financing of public spending — is a viable option given low inflation expectations.

COVID-19Monetary policy

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March 20, 2020

The coronavirus attacks the lung of the economy

With Mauricio Olivera

The COVID-19 pandemic hit Colombia's economy through simultaneous supply and demand shocks, compounded by the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The sharp currency devaluation won't boost exports since oil prices and external demand collapsed. Short-term policy must focus on containment and protecting vulnerable populations through fiscal relief. Once the crisis passes, aggressive fiscal and monetary measures will be needed to drive recovery.

COVID-19

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January 24, 2020

2020: More of the same?

2019 was a bad year for the global economy — only 11% of world GDP saw faster growth, dragged down by Brexit and the US–China trade war. Latin America suffered too. Colombia stood out with 3.2% growth, but unemployment topped 10% and the current account deficit hit -4% of GDP. For 2020, the outlook is more of the same: ~3.3% growth, persistent unemployment, stable interest rates, and inflation near the upper target band.

Growth

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November 1, 2019

Latin America in flames

With Mauricio Olivera

Latin America is in crisis. After the lost decade of the 80s, pro-market reforms of the 90s failed expectations, leading to left-wing governments that rode the commodities boom to expand social programs. When commodity prices fell in 2014, growth collapsed and structural issues — inequality and low productivity — persisted. The pendulum swung back to pro-market governments, but adjustment efforts have also fallen short, sparking widespread unrest.

Latin America

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July 26, 2019

Latin America won't grow in 2019

With LAECO

LAECO, the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultancies, projects that the region's GDP will contract by -0.1% in 2019, downgrading its March estimate by 1.1 percentage points. Recessions in Argentina and Venezuela, plus slowdowns in Brazil, Mexico, Ecuador, and Uruguay, drive this stagnation. Colombia, while not growing at desired rates, outperforms most peers. Efficient public spending and supportive monetary policy could help weather the regional storm.

Latin AmericaGrowth

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No columns from this year.